The U.S. unemployment rate fell to
a seven-year low in August as employers added a modest 173,000 jobs, a key
piece of evidence for the Federal Reserve in deciding whether to raise interest
rates from record lows later this month. The Labor Department says the unemployment rate fell to 5.1
percent from 5.3 percent, the lowest since April 2008. Hiring in August was the lowest in
five months, but the government revised up the June and July job growth by a
combined 44,000. From June through August, the economy generated a solid
221,000 jobs a month, up from an average of 189,000 in March through May. Steady hiring could encourage the
Fed to raise rates for the first time in a decade. Still, stock market
turbulence, a persistently low inflation rate and a sharp slowdown in China
could complicate its decision.
Still,
after three years of solid job growth that has put nearly 8 million Americans
back to work, Fed officials are probably satisfied with the job market's
progress. Once the Fed begins raising borrowing rates, higher rates are likely
to eventually ripple through the economy. Americans could face higher costs for
mortgages and other loans, though the increases could be modest and gradual. A stumbling global economy and
stronger dollar, which makes U.S. exports costlier overseas, could slow growth
for the next 12 months, according to Goldman Sachs. Joseph LaVorgna, chief U.S.
economist at Deutsche Bank, cautioned before Friday's report that job growth
for August typically falls short of later revisions. The elimination of
millions of summer jobs in August tends to cause the government to undershoot
the actual job gain for the month. A key question is how the stock market turbulence and China's
troubles might affect the overall U.S. economy. The answer probably won't be
clear for months. So far, the effect has been minimal. Smaller companies and services firms,
which are largely insulated from global trends, are still doing well. Service
sector companies, such as restaurants, retailers, banks and construction
companies are expanding at the fastest pace in nearly a decade, according to a
survey by the Institute for Supply Management. The number of Americans seeking unemployment remains very low by
historical standards — evidence that companies are still confident enough about
customer demand to maintain their staff levels. A solid jobs report Friday
would reinforce that view. There are
other signs that the U.S. job market remains solid. Americans overall have a
brighter outlook: According to the Conference Board's consumer confidence
survey, nearly 22 percent of Americans said jobs were plentiful in August. That
matched the proportion who said jobs were hard to get — the first time since
the Great Recession began in 2007 that the two figures have been equal.
Associated Press - Chicago Tribune
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